“Japan will be destroyed on July 5th.”
This kind of urban legend recently spread across social media.
There have been various “crises” in the past predicting the destruction of Japan or the end of the world—ranging from Mount Fuji eruptions, major earthquakes directly under the capital, massive meteor impacts, to even UFO invasions. The variations are endless.
But just like before, nothing happened this time either. Ordinary life continues on as if nothing ever occurred.

That said, can we really just say “nothing happened, so all is well” and leave it at that? Not quite.
Natural disasters and emergencies are unpredictable, but it’s still vital to be prepared.
In fact, it is said that both the Heian and Edo periods came to an end following major natural disasters like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
When it comes to long-term assets like real estate, we must always keep in mind that disasters—though we never know exactly when—will eventually happen. We need to assess locations with uncertainty as a given.

Let’s try a simple thought experiment:
What kinds of measures should Japan begin taking as a nation to prepare for a major disaster?

For example, the following policies have often been discussed:

• Partial decentralization of urban functions / Relocation to higher ground and redevelopment of areas at risk of flooding
• Redevelopment of wide-area transportation networks with emergency evacuation capabilities
• Concentration of urban areas on land resistant to tsunamis and liquefaction
• Development of backup cities for disasters, in conjunction with regional revitalization

If these measures were actually implemented, which areas would draw attention? Speaking from my perspective here in the Kansai region, a few places come to mind.

For example, Kameoka City is surrounded by the Tamba Highlands and sits at a high elevation. Compared to Kyoto City, it faces lower risks of earthquakes and flooding, and it’s also being looked at as a potential “evacuation destination” in response to climate change risks. With housing prices soaring in Kyoto, its practicality as a commuter town is also increasing.

In Osaka, Minoh City stands out. Among the Hokusetsu area, it’s particularly elevated and known for its stable ground. In 2023, the Kita-Osaka Kyuko Line was extended, improving access to central Osaka. It’s disaster-resilient and also popular as an academic and residential area.

In the Hanshin region, Sanda City is a candidate. It has high elevation within the Hanshin area, is within commuting distance to both Kobe and Osaka, and has been identified as a potential backup city in times of disaster. Depending on how urban restructuring progresses, its value could increase.

If the above policies were to be realized, these areas could be recognized as “disaster-resilient cities,” potentially driving up real estate prices. They could also become candidates for relocation or corporate office transfers, sparking population inflows.

On the other hand, if these measures are not implemented, these regions will likely remain viewed as “relatively affordable residential areas compared to city centers.” From an asset value perspective, they may remain neutral or even decline gradually if the trend of returning to urban centers continues. That said, if rising mortgage rates and soaring construction costs make city-center housing unaffordable for more people, migration pressure could shift the balance and lead to a different outcome.

Being spotlighted under the banner of “disaster preparedness” doesn’t automatically translate to increased investment value. Only those who anticipate and act ahead of actual implementation may stand to benefit.

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